Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 136.419824 158.185810 183.214705 214.330015 252.259015 297.357407 355.586223
2025-11-23 105.397050 131.322775 163.977887 208.811498 269.854508 351.705943 472.650641
2025-11-30 93.553690 123.142635 163.143057 222.622115 311.425780 443.597683 664.447554
2025-12-07 82.133845 112.635713 156.138434 224.965824 335.603375 515.153328 848.850931
2025-12-14 74.280802 105.468120 152.036774 229.829068 363.450734 598.367647 1081.989164
2025-12-21 66.949881 97.803939 145.656502 229.338210 381.523209 668.700949 1318.048802
2025-12-28 63.974736 96.280940 148.431758 244.224922 429.695012 808.725001 1765.063791
2026-01-04 60.750289 93.844299 149.191054 255.450765 473.370525 953.529043 2302.767486
2026-01-11 57.540136 90.974369 148.694725 264.070481 513.688447 1104.638998 2952.377824
2026-01-18 54.116433 87.305316 146.216543 268.260633 545.376206 1246.497952 3675.656802
2026-01-25 50.593771 83.059507 142.097994 268.322336 567.602908 1372.306839 4445.648577
2026-02-01 46.745634 77.835079 135.495667 262.014518 573.025098 1453.724221 5118.308868
2026-02-08 43.246006 73.038047 129.401988 256.388989 580.405625 1549.288801 5973.920819
2026-02-15 40.089130 68.595362 123.525142 250.365829 585.589396 1641.836020 6932.449162
2026-02-22 39.521907 69.009257 127.482008 267.863082 660.427430 2008.584351 9925.235853
2026-03-01 37.666331 66.727943 125.555707 270.844659 694.470754 2247.663357 12604.439525
2026-03-08 36.233875 65.147231 124.927208 276.974255 740.276235 2563.267954 16601.027552
2026-03-15 34.403762 62.596174 121.889847 276.357127 764.485491 2803.328708 20639.972447
2026-03-22 34.098758 63.148522 125.827691 295.143682 861.005211 3458.256906 31598.143771
2026-03-29 33.451067 62.915680 127.937675 309.353655 947.287168 4146.046168 47158.495198
2026-04-05 32.615755 62.201923 128.830739 320.289240 1026.042937 4876.812498 69553.223475
2026-04-12 31.505650 60.791820 127.888471 325.612698 1084.934924 5552.622968 98475.470263
2026-04-19 30.193115 58.827658 125.377980 325.691126 1122.262081 6128.059417 133279.889100